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Marc Pfeiffer
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Last edited time
Oct 6, 2023 7:39 PM
Date: 9/28/2023
The yield curve has historically predicted the last prior 7 recessions. It is now negative again. Are we due for another recessions and if so what’s the best way to prepare for it from a portfolio perspective?
Source: Guru Focus
Another metric to look at is the Fear / Greed Index here
![image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Fprod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fb41cd1a0-ee4c-440c-8a7b-eed3f696dcbc%2F8c612152-9c98-461c-88dd-1e5f3de90aa1%2FUntitled.png?id=ced62ab1-ea8a-402f-b361-97e92c545c77&table=block)
Here’s it on a timeline view
![image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Fprod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fb41cd1a0-ee4c-440c-8a7b-eed3f696dcbc%2F7f3ce01d-212e-4ebd-af53-df2d3c6bc236%2FUntitled.png?id=1beb3c2d-ef98-4d74-b020-085896ff9807&table=block)
Other things to look at include the Shiller P/E Ratio as when it has passed 20 it has preceded a decline in the market.
![image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Fprod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fb41cd1a0-ee4c-440c-8a7b-eed3f696dcbc%2Fa6abc0ef-01f8-4b8c-9a80-9470488f7907%2FUntitled.png?id=933fa1b9-53c8-4e0e-b78f-2ea9f609d043&table=block)
Here’s the current chart as of writing this article from: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
It shows that we are clearly above a 20 P/E ratio.
![image](https://www.notion.so/image/https%3A%2F%2Fprod-files-secure.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fb41cd1a0-ee4c-440c-8a7b-eed3f696dcbc%2Fcad15387-1cf6-4da9-b69f-045717a5f1dd%2FUntitled.png?id=5da0354a-e6cc-418f-b352-2087a7232a81&table=block)